Possible short-term bullish comeback ahead of the resolution of trendline confluence
Altcoins rising might anticipate possible rises in the main Cryptos
Last week’s weakness demands a lot of attention as more bearish breakouts are not out of the cards
Bitcoin is tangled inside a technical logjam that should be cleared before the end of July. Trendlines ruling the movement project to meet around that time, maybe early August. The pattern tells us that the price usually doesn’t get close to the vertex, but it rather gets around it in a parabolic trajectory. The following chart draws the possible scenario for the upcoming weeks.
BTC/USD 240 Min
Bitcoin has recovered the $6,220 level and is bringing some optimism to the market. This bullish reinstalled confidence should not make us forget how quickly and efficiently BTC/USD moves downward when sellers take action. The levels command the action:
Bullish Scenario: First test for Bitcoin at the $6,325 level, where a long-term trend is taking place. Right on top, the SMA200, SMA100, and EMA50 are the real test. If BTC/USD overcomes these averages, the money could flow back into the market. Breakout confirmation if the price goes above $6,600. If that level fails, panic will come back to markets and sells might be very strong.
Bearish Scenario: The first target to gain bearish momentum is located at $6,220, would open up another visit to the bearish quadrant. Next target is very close, at $6,080. A downward breach would offer an excellent opportunity to sell, with the first target at $5,850 where the recent lows remain. The confirmation or denial of a downward continuity should be at the $5,750 level. A close below that level would recommend waiting for a pullback to enter the downward trend
The MACD at the 240-min chart crosses upwards, drawing the “MACD failure” pattern. It is a setup that is favorable to the bulls.
The Directional Movement Index at 240 min shows a slight reaction from buyers accompanied by a slight decrease from sellers. ADX is at similar levels to previous market floors.
ETH/USD 240 min
Yesterday Ethereum left a “hanging-man” figure, the head of the candle has correctly defined the close above the trend line. It is a strong bullish signal.
Bullish Scenario: First target at the current week’s high at $443, projected to breach $460 for a return to a neutral environment. Before reaching that level, Ethereum will have to conquer the SMA100 and the EMA50 levels. Above $460, the SMA200 at $475 would open the door to an increase in buying activity. Next resistance level at $484, with the confirmation needing a close above $495.60.
Bearish Scenario: If Ethereum loses the trend line that was recovered yesterday, the best option would be to open bearish positions below $427, with stops at a close above $435. First target at $418, with continuation to $380. Below $370, a possible increase in downward positions.
The MACD at the 240-min chart is crossed upwards, having met the “MACD failure” pattern, so the signal is stronger.
The Directional Movement Index shows the increase in buyers’ activity accompanied by a decline in sellers levels. It is too early to validate these movements.