Aftermaths of the August 2016 Bitfinex Hack.

In August 2016, Bitfinex was hacked for about 120 000BTC, which was valued at about 72$ Million at the time. Following the hack, Bitfinex put in place some mechanisms to repay their customers, including the Recovery Right Token (RRT). This token can be redeemed at a value of 1$ in the event some of the stolen BTC were found. In total, about 30 000 000 RRT were created.

One year later, the stolen BTC have not been returned, but they are stricly monitored on about 2000 different addresses.

About 30 000 000 RRT are in circulation, and they are valued at about 0.18-0.23$/ RRT. Because BTC value exploded in the last year, only about 2300 BTC need to be returned to bitfinex to repay each of the 30 000 000 RRT at a face value of 1$. This represents 2{dd45967e3c80c098848607e039f394f1d71abf9d2616a5f41310bf044a124834} of the stolen BTC.

You can also see that there is a volume surge on the RRT/BTC graph in the last few days. https://i.redd.it/ogr5nj8t1j601.png

This surge amount to about 100 000 000 RRT in trading volume, which is 3 times more than the total amount of RRT in circulation. This seems oddly strange.

How would you rate the chances of these token being redeemed at face value in the future?



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