**2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Bear Market Resumes?**
—08-JAN-2018: Elliott Wave, https://redd.it/7ptsg3
—12-JAN-2018: Crypto Black Monday, https://redd.it/7pxg0d
—24-JAN-2018: Dotcom vs Crypto, https://redd.it/7skzff
—21-FEB-2018: Bear Market Resumes, https://redd.it/7z8u6n
—28-FEB-2018: Halfway Through, https://redd.it/7umjf9
—13-MAR-2018: Fare Thee Well Ten Thousand, https://redd.it/842ssd
—19-MAR-2018: Equinox, https://redd.it/85m5tr
—03-APR-2018: April Fools’ Rally, https://redd.it/89jqye
Bitcoin has rallied 100% from the 6000 (Bifinex) lows set on 06-FEB-2018.
It appears the bear market rally has completed, and the second leg of the bear market may be underway.
Fibonacci resistance clusters, zone 1:
@11306: 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from 17-DEC-2017
@11626: 50% retracement of the downtrend from 06-JAN-2018
@11652: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.236 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-11652).
Fibonacci resistance clusters, zone 2:
@12100: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.382 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-12100).
@12293: 38.2% retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
@12463: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.5 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-12463).
As of 20-FEB-2018, the market appears to have completed a Triple Zig-Zag formation from 7851 to 11788, which is just a mere 119 points shy of the 11907 cumulative average of the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance zones.
In addition, weakening internals of an overbought RSI has been creating negative divergences against rising price action on the 4-hr.
Compounded with largest drop since the rally began on 06-FEB-2018, and trend-reversals occurring in popular Altcoins; there is reason once more to suggest the bear market rally has completed, and the second leg of the bear market may be underway.
In regards to the psychological state of mind: Taking out 8000 would reaffirm the ‘fear’ phase. Taking out the 6000 lows would represent the ‘capitulation’ stage —where mass media hysterics peak and exchange outages occur. The 78.6% retracement of the entire market at 4257 begins the ‘despair’ state of affairs.
From a political and socionomic standpoint, the following events (termed as “FUD” by millennials) may begin to unravel during the second leg of the bear market:
—Further laws/bans/restrictions upon cryptocurrencies invoked by countries/governments, calling for tighter regulation and fraud prevention: positive rulings, but perceived as negatives.
—Prolonged exchange outages preventing deposits/withdrawals and management of positions; including hacking.
—Exposure and collapse of further Ponzi schemes.
—Majority of Altcoins currently under $2,000,000,000 market capitalization becoming extinct.
—Mergers & acquisitions of crypto companies in the endeavour to survive.
—Individual bankruptcies and suicides.
Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes).
Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019.
Elliott Wave speculative models indicative of price and structure, not time; as follows (popular Altcoins included):
BTC (4-hr): https://i.imgur.com/f4ayfeZ.png
BTC (Weekly): https://i.imgur.com/F1brFLf.png
BTC (Daily): https://i.imgur.com/c1akvbf.png